Eftirfarandi hugmynd fengum við senda frá Þórði B. Sigurðssyni:
Í kjölfar hruns efnahagskerfisins er ljóst að eitt af stóru málunum í dag snýst um húsnæðislán heimilanna. Eins og kunnugt hafa stjórnvöld nú gripið til þeirrar tímabundu ráðstöfunar að bjóða upp á frystingu afborgana erlendra lána til 4-6 mánaða. Beðið hefur verið eftir útspili stjórnvalda í tengslum við verðtryggðu lánin. Þann 14.11.2008 kynnti ríkisstjórnin svo „Aðgerðir í þágu heimilanna“ þar sem verðtryggðu lánin eru til umfjöllunar. http://www.forsaetisraduneyti.is/frettir/nr/3206
Þessar aðgerðir sem „einkum (eru) ætlað(ar) að hjálpa almenningi að standa við skuldbindingar sínar við erfiðar aðstæður“ eru í besta falli viðleitni. Í versta falli bera þær þess of skýr merki að ríkisstjórnin sé ekki í nógu góðum tengslum við þjóð þá sem hún hefur verið kosin til að vera málsvari fyrir. Betur má ef duga skal. Þörf er á varanlegum lausnum.
Ég vil því kynna til sögunnar hugmynd í þágu ríkisstjórnarinnar sem er einkum ætlað að hjálpa henni að standa við skuldbindingar sínar gagnvart kjósendum við erfiðar aðstæður:
Boðið verði upp á þann valkost að erlend lán verði umreiknuð á þann veg að þau líti út fyrir að hafa upphaflega verið tekin sem verðtryggð krónulán. Lánin verði svo endurfjármögnuð af Íbúðalánasjóði (í krónum) og skuldbreyting eigi sér stað. Íbúðalánasjóður taki veð í húsnæðinu á móti.
Verðtrygging verði gerð óvirk í beinu framhaldi. T.d. frá og með 1. júlí 2008. Verðtrygging verði ekki virk fyrr en Seðlabankinn nái verðbólgumarkmiði sínu sem er 2,5%. Hugsanlega taki þjóðin upp annan gjaldmiðil í millitíðinni þar sem verðtryggingin er ekki hluti af kerfinu.
Stofnaðir verði tveir aðlögunarsjóðir með löggjöf frá Alþingi sem taki á sig mismuninn. Annars vegar sjóður sem meðhöndli verðtrygginguna og starfi í líkingu við það sem Gunnar Tómasson, hagfræðingur, kynnti í Fréttablaðinu þann 12.11.2008:
- Verðbótaþáttur húsnæðis- og námslána frá 1. júlí 2008 til 31. desember 2009 komi hvorki til innheimtu hjá lántakendum né bætist við höfuðstól útistandandi lána heldur greiðist af sérstökum aðlögunarsjóði stofnsettum af Alþingi með neyðarlöggjöf líkt og beitt var við yfirtöku bankanna.
- Aðlögunarsjóðnum sé heimilt að gefa út, og veitendum húsnæðis- og námslána sé skylt að taka við, til lúkningar á verðbótaþætti lánanna á ofangreindu tímabili skuldabréf til tíu ára sem (i) bera 5% nafnvexti á ári, (ii) eru afborgunarlaus fyrstu fimm árin, og (iii) endurgreiðast síðan með fimm jöfnum árlegum afborgunum.
Hins vegar sjóður sem hefði það hlutverk að yfirtaka skuldir í erlendri mynt vegna skuldbreytingu á húsnæðislánum heimilanna og greiða þær skuldir niður. Þannig yrði til ríkistryggður sjóður, skuldsettur í erlendri mynt. Sjóðurinn gæti hugsanlega fjármagnað sig með skuldabréfaútboði því hugsanlega hefðu fagfjárfestar áhuga á að lána sjóðnum (ríkinu) fyrir þessum skuldum á hagstæðari kjörum heldur en upprunalegu lánin voru veitt á. Þannig væri jafnvel hægt að takmarka afföll sjóðsins í krafti magnviðskipta með skuldirnar. Nú og ef svo heppilega vill til að áform stjórnvalda um að styrkja gengi krónunnar takist þá lækkar höfuðstóll skulda sjóðsins í krónum talið.
Ef stjórnvöld vilja koma í veg fyrir fjöldagjaldþrot heimilanna og stórfelldan fólksflótta í kjölfarið verða þau að horfast í augu við að aðgerða sem þessa er brýn þörf. Því miður er tíminn afar naumur sem stjórnvöld hafa til að bregðast við yfirfofandi neyðarástandi. Sem betur fer höfum við hins vegar nægan tíma til að vinna okkur út úr hlutunum ef stefnan er tekin í rétta átt og velferð almennings tryggð. Tími breytinga er engu að síður núna. Um það verður ekki deilt.
Þórður B. Sigurðsson
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